If you cannot count what matters, you make what you count matter! This has been the tragedy of the opposition in Uganda. They have a set of prejudices, biases and beliefs they are married to, and ignore facts and statistics as they exist in reality. This has consistently led them to tears.
Ten days to the election, let us look at the numbers. Bobi Wine’s biggest source of support are youths, but predominately male youths in urban and semi urban areas. Also, youth (people aged 18-30 years) are the largest segment of our population.
However, the most critical questions for Bobi Wine and his confederates are two: first, are these youths registered to vote; and second, for those who are registered, how many show up to vote. The answers to these two questions are of decisive importance in determining the fortunes of the opposition’s main candidate.
The most urbanized part of Uganda is Kampala City and it’s surrounding Wakiso district. If the opposition have any chance of winning, they need to have 80% to 90% voter turnout in this, their stronghold. And if Bobi Wine is to have a chance, he needs youthful voters turning out in massive numbers in Kampala and Wakiso to vote for him. But what is the reality on the ground!?
According to the Electoral Commission (EC) there are nearly 1.3m registered voters in Kampala. Of these, the youths (18-30) are 41% or 520,000. This is under registration because these age group is 51% of the adult (voting) population of Uganda. So even before votes are cast in Kampala, 10% (130,000) of people most likely to vote Bobi Wine are not registered voters in the city.
The situation is the same in Wakiso district with 2.8m registered voters, only 41% are youths, meaning another 280,000 people most likely to vote for Bobi Wine are not registered voters. Those are 310,000 votes not on the register in the geographical area and the voter demographic where Bobi Wine has the highest support.
Secondly, polling data shows that President Yoweri Museveni remains competitive among female youths. By competitive I mean that Bobi Wine does not have overwhelming support among female youths compared to male youths, and female youth are 51% of the registered voters.
Finally is voter turnout. Normally, only 45% of Kampala and Wakiso show up to vote. Although I don’t have the exact numbers I suspect youths, especially male youths, vote less than other demographic groups in the city. This makes potential voting numbers for Bobi Wine even less.
Besides there are many people above 40 who voted for Besigye and would ideally vote for an opposition presidential consistent but who would not vote for Bobi Wine believing he lacks the pedigree and competence to be president. Discounting this sentiment is to bury one’s head in the proverbial sand.
Here is the real challenge that has always bedeviled the opposition in Uganda: low voter turnout of their strongest bases of support both geographically – and most critically for Bobi Wine – demographically. That is the trick of the Museveni victories that the opposition fail to capture.
In the 2016 election, voter turnout in Kampala and Wakiso was 51% and 54% respectively and Besigye was winning by 66% and 60% respectively. Meanwhile in the West and Karamoja, Museveni’s strong bases, voter turnout was above 70% and the president was getting above above 75% of the vote.
Opposition activists can insult those who point out these facts and statistics, they can bury their heads in the sand and refuse to ponder over the significance of these numbers believing that rallies and social media noise is what it takes to win an election. But ignoring these faces will bring them to tears come next week.
A thick neck isn’t defined by a certain measurement. Rather, it’s measured in proportion to the rest of your body in terms of height, weight, and composition.
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Accordingly, the same description can be said of the latest cabinet reshuffle by President Yoweri Museveni.
The naming of former Chieftaincy of Military Intelligence operative and a one term Education Minister Maj. Jessica Alupo, Vice President and Robinah Nabanja, the Kakumiro district Woman Member of Parliament as Prime Minister perfectly suits the above description.
Politically both ladies are suitable for their positions but will they match the game of the day? A quick look at Maj. Alupo, she has been politically struggling to make a return from political oblivion after she was beaten by Violet Akurut who defeated in 2016 Katakwi district Woman seat, Alupo, apart from her spying skills, she hasn’t gained much experience that comes with job of Vice President. Yes, she could be loyal to her party but in terms of real state craft, Alupo can’t match the likes of Prof. Gilbert Bukenya and Dr. Specioza Wandira Kazibwe. In picking Maj. Alupo, Museveni could have wanted to deflate Busoga politics by bringing in a Catholic and from Teso also in Eastern Region since the Teso overwhelming voted for him. Anyway, that said but what is the job of VP? And perhaps President Museveni wanted amuse the Iteso with presidency convoy that comes with VP status as described by Maj. John Kazoora in his book.
Enters Robinah Nabanja, the Kakumiro/ Kibaale iron lady, is a loyal servant of the National Resistance Movement (NRM) having started as a mobilizer, Resident District Commission to Member of Parliament, State Minister of Health in Charge of General Duties and now Prime Minister.
Nabanja is assertive and a go-getter. She is a mobilizer but little is known about her in matters of boardroom politics. The Office of the Prime is the second highest department in government after presidency, it is vital and coordinates key ministries and government agencies and therefore, with Nabanja being named PM, will she be up to the task given that the office she is given needs someone of a critical thinker and a leader?
The PM is the leader of government business in parliament and is mandated to coordinate all government interests. The previous PMs that have served in the same position have proven that indeed one must be equal to the task as demonstrated by late Prof. Apolo Nsibambi, John Patrick Amama Mbabazi and Ruhakana Rugunda. But it is never too late, let’s accord PM Nabanja her time.
Rebecca Kadaga as 1st Deputy PM and Busoga politics
The former Speaker of Parliament Rebecca Kadaga has been nominated as 1st Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of East African Affairs. She takes over the affairs of the East African region. The slot of 1st Deputy Minister has been unoccupied with Ministry of East Affairs being run separately. She is deputy to Nabanja. However, her appointment is surprising given that she is a former Speaker, could it be that it was her own downplaying of VP position that Museveni didn’t name her VP?
Still in Busoga, Museveni named former Gender State Minister Lukia Isanga Nakadama as 3rd Deputy Prime Minister and Minister Without Portfolio, she replaces late Kirunda Kivejinja a fellow Muslim. She is from the greater Iganga district and has wide network of Muslim networks. Political experts believe that the reentry of Isanga to cabinet as 3rd Deputy Prime Minister was to balance the politics of day given that Kadaga who previously served as Speaker had been reduced to 1st Deputy PM and remains a popular figure in the region.
Busoga further saw the entry of NRM Secretary General Justine Lumumba as Minister of General Duties office of the Prime Minister, Mariam Dhoka Babalanda as Minister of Presidency replacing a fellow Musoga Esther Mbayo.
Sanctions/ ICC factor and historical factors
With reported Untied States travel and economic sanctions looming on heads of individuals that were listed by United States government, President Yoweri Museveni hasn’t taken a gamble with those threats. And that is why is so.
General Elly Tumwine the outgoing Secretary Minister is among the names that were listed as to have violated rights of Ugandans during the just concluded elections. Coupled with arrogance in which he exhibited himself to the public, it was prudent that Museveni had to send Tumwine home though he has gone back to his docket of Senior Presidential Advisor on Security.
Sam Kutesa He is another former Minister whose name has been soiled with bad scandals and publicity for a long time. Kutesa has maintained that he has been a target by his colleagues and detractors because of his closeness to the first family but that hasn’t helped as his name keep on coming in many alleged international scandals. However, sources say Kutesa had opted to retire from mainstream politics and this could be explained why he never contested for his parliamentary seat.
Ruhakana Rugunda popularly known as Ndugu, is the outgoing PM who has finished his five years as Prime Minister smoothly. He leaves the show a clean as he came. He has been appointed as Special Envoy for Special Duties Office of the President. With Rugunda, Kutesa and Tumwine out, this leaves Museveni with only two historical in government and these are Major Generals Kahinda Otafiire incoming Internal Affairs Minister and Jim Muhwezi, Security Minister.
Entry of Gen. David Muhoozi the outgoing Chief of Defence Forces has been appointed new State Minister of Internal Affair, he replaces Obiga Kania who has been moved to Lands. Muhoozi’s appointment has received warm welcome among his peers who see him as clean and young man who is likely to being new energies with new strategies in government that is mostly dominated by the old guards.
Muhoozi distinguished himself a strict observant of the law and that can explain why his name has never surfaced among those that violated human rights as alleged by US.
KiryowaKiwanuka also known as KK is another smart chap that comes in as Attorney General. He has previously played behind scenes in major legal battles regarding President Museveni and government.
So, the thick neck cabinet which has been named will be associated with power and strength. it is large enough but nothing much will be gotten out of it as described by the two individuals above (Vice President and Prime Minister).
The National Unity Platform (NUP) has endorsed Judith Nalukwago as Makerere University Guild Presidential aspirant.
Nalukwago was endorsed shortly after the young Makerere strike machine; Obed Obedgiu Derrick opted out of the race. Obed announced that he will not be offering himself as a candidate in the highly anticipated Mak guild elections as the new election roadmap is yet to be released.
“Salutations to you friends, I shan’t offer myself as a candidate in the forthcoming elections as was the case earlier. Thanks to all and sundry for the unwavering support,” Obed wrote on Facebook.
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Although Obed had won the flag bearer primaries early before the closure of the University due to the Covid-19 pandemic break-up, he has decided to give way to the fellow people power member Judith Nalukwago to aspire and promises undying support for her.
In a series of posts on her social media handles, Nalukwago announced that she will be running for the position of Guild President. She says that the seat of the Vice Guild President offered her an opportunity to assert her beliefs and push more for affordable education and education reforms.
“The Vice Guild Presidency presented to me a great opportunity to assert those beliefs and push more for affordable education and address systematic injustice against students in general and women in particular. This struggle is always a work in progress,” Nalukwago said.
She added, “The task before us is an uphill one, but the power of our resolve will be the steam that gets our train moving. In the coming days, I will share broadly about this noble aspiration and what I have in plan for us all.”
Makerere University might get a female guild president after seven years. Anne Adeke Ebaju is the Youth Female Representative in Parliament.
The University now has four candidates in the race; Tumusiime Joseph (independent), Ogutti Aaron (independent), Muhwezi Maczxxon (NRM) and the only lady Judith Nalukwago (NUP). However the competition is between the NRM flag bearer and the NUP aspirant as they wait for the date of 30th March to decide the new elect Guild President.
Kira Municipality Member of Parliament and opposition Forum for Democratic Change – FDC spokesperson Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda has declared his bid to challenge incumbent Rebecca Kadaga in the race for Speaker of parliament.
Ssemujju, a vocal opposition strongman made his bid public on Tuesday March 9th while appearing on local television, NBS.
Ssemujju becomes the third person gunning for position after reports about deputy speaker Jacob Oulanya also planning to challenge his boss Kadaga.